He listed some obvious uptrends: amazon, automation. Some were controversial – China DOWN? Residential real estate UP?
I offer some silly thoughts of my own.
Movie Theaters: UP
Analysts say box office tickets will not recover in 2 years. That’s fair. But movies filming will resume, and will continue to roll out in theaters later.
While some will avoid going to crowded space, I think that’s going to work out fine. Fear will subside. There are worse crowded experience.
Home theatre is great, but still expensive to purchase high quality AV equipments. They can never be compared to the big screen experience, especially premium experience from IMAX.
Perhaps theaters will integrate more innovations, such as 3D/4D/5D experience.
Dates have to be outdoor anyway, right?
Live Concerts: WILL RECOVER
Live experience cannot be replicated, and people now pays for experience over material.
Perhaps staying-home during COVID makes people desire even more of such experience.
(Anyway, live concerts are way more crowded than movie theaters.)
Remote Working: UP
I am a fan of remote work. To be precise I love to have an office where we can still meet up physically, while solo creative work can be quietly at home.
When I was in ShopBack, the policy is strictly no work-from-home. I was quite dismay by that, considering I had to travel 1 hr each way, at lower productivity.
But I believe all companies should now be more open to that. The COVID situation has forced everyone to give it a try. I think it works?
It should also now be obvious that you need not fly so regularly for work.
Cost of car ownership will go down. Particularly in Singapore, because it is not worth owning a ~$100,000 vehicle, where you can drive for only 10 years.
Residential Properties: DOWN
A period of recession will drive big price items down. Some will be bankrupt, and some investors sell cheap.
Property prices will go down, but perhaps only a slight decline. Because we now see the value of our home. If you have stayed in shoebox apartment during the lockdown, you would perhaps want to upgrade to a bigger apartment.
Kevin Surace predicted China will go DOWN, and the reason is:
A larger impact is that China is the worlds manufacturer. Essentially a single source country… having second source countries will become the norm.
He meant US and others will seek for alternatives, so as not to be too reliant on China. Agree.
But you cannot underestimate China economy and how it governs. This very well might be the point in history where it becomes the number one superpower. Even George Yeo agrees.