My Mazda Has 1 year left, but I am not gonna buy an EV with Skyhigh COE.

Yesterday I went to the Tesla showroom for a test drive. I liked the car.

The salesman told me a lot of people were placing orders. Even if I ordered now, he said I’d probably only get mine in November.

He also warned me about the year-end rebate deadline. The usual package allows up to 7 rounds of COE bidding, non-guaranteed, so placing an order doesn’t mean the COE is secured.

If registration slipped into next year, I’d miss the extra S$10,000 in incentives.

But is that S$10,000 worth it when COE has already jumped S$31,000 this year?

My Mazda 3 doesn’t need to be scrapped until around September 2027. I’ve got roughly 1 year left, and I’m considering a Tesla or BYD. I don’t need to buy today.

Saving S$10,000 after COE went up S$31,000

Cat A’s lowest premium so far in 2026 was S$102,009 on 7 January. By 9 September, it had reached a record S$133,009.

That’s S$31,000 more for the COE alone.

COE	2026 low so far	9 September	Increase
Cat A	S$102,009	S$133,009	S$31,000
Cat B	S$105,001	S$135,001	S$30,000

Cat B’s low was on 20 February. These are LTA’s tender results, with the Cat A record also reported by CNA.

I can’t go back and buy at January’s price. But it does make the urgency over a S$10,000 rebate feel a bit strange.

I’m supposed to rush now to save money?

The rebate is real

For a qualifying new EV in VES Band A, the maximum rebates are:

Registration year	VES	EEAI	Total
2026	S$22,500	Up to S$7,500	Up to S$30,000
2027	S$20,000	None	Up to S$20,000

The extra saving is up to S$10,000. These offset registration tax, so the actual amount depends on the car’s tax and eligibility. LTA/NEA’s rules.

And the salesman was right about the deadline: registration must happen by 31 December 2026 for the 2026 incentives. Placing an order before then isn’t enough.

That’s how the FOMO gets me. I like the car, delivery is already a couple of months away, and there’s S$10,000 I could miss out on.

But if COE falls S$10,000 next year, that cancels out the maximum rebate loss for the same car, assuming the rest of its price stays unchanged. A price cut from Tesla or BYD could help too; a price increase could undo the saving.

I’ll compare the same variant’s final price, including discounts, loan costs and my Mazda’s trade-in. The rebate alone doesn’t settle it.

I believe 2027 will be cheaper

I expect a better buying opportunity in 2027. The rebate rush will have passed, more deregistrations can feed into supply, and the government is already reviewing how COEs are allocated.

LTA’s quota formula spreads the effect of deregistrations over 12 months. There’s also the up to 20,000 additional COEs being injected across categories over several years from February 2025.

Supply alone won’t fix everything: MOT said Cat A supply had already peaked in late 2025. That’s why I’m watching the policy review too.

Just look at the P1 registration changes I wrote about on SG Schooling. After all the discussion, MOE dropped the announcement on 10 September: a major change to access, including a separate Phase 2C allocation for children living beyond 2km at 12 schools.

And it starts with the next registration exercise in 2027, for children entering P1 in 2028. A framework families had planned around for years can change that quickly.

I think COE reform is overdue. With Cat A above S$133,000 and barely cheaper than Cat B, there’s even more urgency to sort it out.

The category review is due to finish by end-2026, with the transport master plan following in 2027. Merging categories and giving cheaper cars rebates are among the proposals, though the final rules haven’t been announced.

I’m convinced change is coming. The question for me is whether it arrives before I replace the Mazda, and I’m willing to wait to find out.

The Mazda can wait. So can I.

Replacing it now means starting the EV’s depreciation and financing earlier. Keeping it means paying for petrol and maintenance, but I still have months of use left.

I’ll aim to decide around May–June 2027 and get the replacement by July or early August. After hearing November at the showroom, I’m definitely not leaving the order until the Mazda’s last month.

If a really good deal appears earlier, I’ll reconsider. But I’m not gonna buy at S$133,009 COE just because a rebate is expiring.

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